Osborne™ · Wildland Fire Modelling, Analysis, and Mapping Tool
Osborne is a fire model that scores itself against real fires. Tessera, its planned threat-analysis tool, will turn the model into time-to-fire warnings for crews. It is built by Trajanus, an applied-AI company.
Status: in development, used in-house. Results are model scenarios, not validated forecasts.
Osborne re-runs past fires with the weather actually recorded, scores the model against each mapped perimeter, and writes up what it learned. The next run starts from there.
Delivered as a service: we run Osborne and deliver the maps into your own ArcGIS Online.
Tessera, planned inside Osborne, will check crew positions against the model's fire arrival times and give incident command time-to-fire threat levels. Decision support, never a substitute for LCES.
Planned as a service: crews will share position on ArcGIS Field Maps; incident command will get a live web map.
Built on public fire science: the Forest Service fire labs' models, LANDFIRE, recorded fire perimeters from NIFC and infrared mapping and Esri ArcGIS. Trajanus is a member of the Esri Partner Network. What Osborne is built on →
Why we exist
Nineteen Granite Mountain Hotshots died on the Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona. Incident command could not see where the crew was, or how fast the fire was coming.
Bill King was fighting fire in New Mexico that summer, on the Tres Lagunas Fire. He built the first firefighter-tracking prototype that year. Osborne is that work, rebuilt.
Where Osborne comes from →2027 Field Program
Prescribed burns in Arizona and Colorado, as invited research cooperators. LiDAR before, thermal during, LiDAR after, and Osborne scored against what burned.
We are looking for partners: land managers, drone and LiDAR operators, and universities.
Also from Trajanus
Before a hurricane, which tree is the real danger to your house? An app we are developing for residents and municipalities: photograph each tree, answer a few questions, and get a storm-specific ranking of which trees to have looked at first. Cities and counties get a map view of their whole jurisdiction.
Project services
Project management, quality control and design review for commercial projects, with AI doing the heavy reading. Led by Bill King, PMP, with over $1.2 billion in DoD projects behind him.
